Data | Bihar Assembly election 2020: A matter of alliance cohesion
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The Mahagathbandhan fell quick because of the poor efficiency of the Congress within the seats it contested
The election turned out to be an in depth affair between the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the RJD-led Mahagathbandan (MGB). The MGB fell quick because of the poor efficiency of the Congress within the seats it contested and likewise as a result of of the AIMIM’s spoiler impact. The JD(U) additionally fared comparatively worse than the BJP within the NDA fold, however the latter’s considerably higher efficiency than in 2015 helped the coalition sail by way of, LJP’s defection however.
How the ballot performed out
Mapping the seats
The maps present wins in 2020 and 2015 Assembly elections and leads in 2019 Lok Sabha election.
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Strike charge
BJP’s strike charge (SR; seats gained as a % of these contested) improved to 66.4% from 33.8% in 2015 whereas that of RJD and Congress fell. Left events’ SR improved considerably to 55.2%. The JD(U)’s fell drastically as effectively.
Also learn: In Bihar, the subdued narrative of the silent voter
Vote share
The BJP had the very best contested vote share and solely the CPI(ML)(L) got here near matching it. The Congress dragged the MGB down with a low vote share.
Head-to-head
The BJP gained 78.4% & 60.7% of contests in opposition to the Congress & the RJD. The JD(U) gained in opposition to the Congress handily however fared poorly in opposition to the Left & the RJD.
Also learn: Data | How previous polls guided the seat sharing technique between BJP and JD(U) in Bihar elections
Party performances throughout rural and concrete areas
The BJP improved its contested vote shares in 2020 throughout rural/city areas from its 2015 numbers, aside from a minor drop in city areas whereas the JD(U) shed vote share throughout areas with a serious drop in city areas. The RJD & INC additionally misplaced floor.
Party performances throughout areas within the State
Compared to 2015, the BJP elevated its vote share throughout all areas besides Bhojpur. The BJP’s strongest present got here in Mithila whereas the RJD’s got here in Bhojpur.
Also learn: Data | Past ballot efficiency throughout varied areas guided NDA seat-sharing deal for Bihar elections
Victory margins
The desk exhibits the quantity of seats gained/led by events throughout varied margin ranges. Margin is represented as a % of whole votes. The quantity of seats the place events got here runner-up throughout margin-ranges can also be famous. 15 seats have been gained/ led with a <1% margin and one other 28 with a margin between 1 and a pair of.5%.
Outside components
The AIMIM and LJP didn’t win many seats however they secured sufficient votes to emerge a spoiler for the MGB and NDA respectively.
Also learn: Employment, lastly an election challenge
Sources: 2020 Results from the Election Commission of India; maps from Datameet GitHub; previous election outcomes from the Trivedi Centre for Political Data; regional classifications from CSDS; rural-urban divisions utilizing night time mild knowledge from The SHRUG Development Data Lab
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