Analysis | What lies ahead for JD(U) with a diminished Nitish Kumar
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‘The party cannot survive in the longer run and could even splinter if Nitish Kumar’s recognition continues to dip,’ says founder member-secretary of Asian Development Research Institute in Patna
As the early traits counsel, the Janata Dal (United) is rising as the largest loser within the Bihar 2020 Assembly elections and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s personal picture seems tremendously diminished. Can the JD (U) survive the declining recognition of Mr. Kumar?
“Without Nitish Kumar it has no future,” Shaibal Gupta, founder member-secretary of Asian Development Research Institute in Patna, says outrightly. The occasion can’t survive within the longer run and will even splinter if Mr. Kumar’s recognition continues to dip. “It will not happen soon, but it is not going to be easy in the longer run,” Mr. Gupta mentioned.
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In the final three Assembly elections 2005, 2010 and 2015 the JD (U)’s vote share has swung between almost 23% and 17%. The 23% excessive was in 2010, three years after Mr. Kumar’s social engineering carving out a constituency for himself with extraordinarily backward castes and mahadalits.
The key distinction between the RJD and the JD (U) is the truth that the RJD has a sizeable vote-bank between the Yadavs and Muslims whereas the JD (U) has a far too scattered one.
So, even when it was out of energy for 15 years, barring the 2 years between 2015-2017 (as a part of ‘mahagatbandhan’ it was within the Nitish authorities), the occasion managed to carry on to its personal.
“Nitish Kumar managed to rally around poorer among poor, he created a political bloc out of the castes that individually do not identify with each other. They are not sizable enough to create a narrative on their own,” political analyst Sajjan Kumar Singh mentioned. So far Mr. Kumar, Mr. Singh mentioned, had additionally received extra help of the higher castes, Yadavs in 2015 when he fought with the RJD, and ahead castes in 2010 when he fought with the BJP.
Though the JD (U) and the BJP stored their marriage intact the world knew all was not effectively. Both ran parallel campaigns, communication broke down between the 2 and the BJP was far too keen to dump the burden of anti-incumbency.
LJP’s impression
On the eve of the election outcomes, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) whose president Chirag Paswan led the assault on Mr. Kumar with his marketing campaign — ‘asambhav Nitish’ or ‘Nitish impossible’ is gloating. As per the occasion insiders, the LJP has affected the JD (U)’s and the NDA’s electoral fortunes in not less than 60 seats. “For the LJP this is a fight for the same vote-bank. The only space available for Mr. Paswan to expand beyond his own caste group is in Mr. Kumar’s constituency of mahadalits and extremely backward caste,” mentioned P.K. Dutta, former professor of politics on the JNU. It was not Mr. Kumar’s charisma however his dexterity that stored him on the helm. “He knew his way to negotiate through and flourished in the political instability in the State,” Mr. Dutta added. It was far too early to put in writing his political obituary, although, Mr. Dutta mentioned, “He has not vanished just yet.”
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