Decoding the BJP’s sweep in Tripura
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Bharatiya Janata Party MLAs Bindu Debnath and Tafajjal Hossain during their oath-taking ceremony in Agartala.
| Photo Credit: ANI
Tafajjal Hossain of Tripura achieved on September 8 what Aminul Haque Laskar of Assam did in 2016 — he became the only Muslim MLA of the Bharatiya Janata Party in a north-eastern State. In keeping with the “tradition” of a party or alliance ruling at the Centre winning State polls or bypolls in a region largely dependent on central funds, Mr. Hossain won from the Muslim-dominated Boxanagar Assembly constituency. His victory also put the spotlight on the alleged practice of manipulating electoral outcomes.
Mr. Laskar went on to become the Deputy Speaker in the Assam Assembly after creating history by winning the Sonai seat in Barak Valley in 2016 and becoming the only Muslim face of the BJP-led alliance. Five years later, he lost Sonai to the All India United Democratic Front’s Karim Uddin Barbhuiya. The increasing religious divide and Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s assertion that the BJP does not need Muslim votes were said to be the prime factors behind his defeat.
Religious polarisation in Bengali-majority Tripura is not as marked as it is in Assam, where Bengali-speaking Muslims are often viewed as Bangladeshis. Tripura’s Muslims hardly face the ‘Bangladeshi’ taunt due to the State’s historic ties with Dhaka. But they are perceived to stand behind the Left Front and Congress due to aggressive Hindutva politics. Mr. Hossain’s win from Boxanagar, as Chief Minister Manik Saha claimed, has changed the narrative that the Muslims and the BJP distrust each other.
Mr. Hossain, 51, was the BJP nominee from Boxanagar for the Assembly elections in February. He lost to the CPI(M)’s Samsul Haque. Haque’s death on July 19 necessitated the bypoll in Boxanagar. Elections were also held in the Dhanpur constituency, which was vacated by Union Minister Pratima Bhoumik of the BJP.
There was wide anticipation that the BJP nominee, Bindu Debnath, would win against the CPI(M)’s Kaushik Chanda in Dhanpur. The CPI(M), however, expected the bypoll, the first electoral battle since the formation of the INDIA alliance, to be a close contest, and was therefore upset when Mr. Debnath won by securing 71% of the votes. To add to its woes, Mr. Hossain routed its candidate, Mizan Hossain, by securing 89% of the total votes polled.
Insisting that the results justified its demand for countermanding the by-elections and holding fresh polls under strict supervision, the CPI(M) politburo said, “These elections have been reduced to a mockery with large-scale rigging by the BJP in connivance with the administration and police… After having lost the Boxanagar seat to the CPI(M) in the February elections, it is impossible for the BJP to secure 89% of the votes except through large-scale rigging.”
Mr. Saha rejected the allegation, attributing the BJP’s “resounding victory” to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s development-oriented policies for the State. “Our party workers reached out to the people with the accomplishments of both the Central and State governments. The people responded positively, rejecting the divisive politics that had persisted for so long in Boxanagar, a minority-dominated area. This marks the beginning of a new chapter against divisive politics, isolating a particular class, and using them as a mere ballot box in Tripura,” he said. Mr. Saha also acknowledged the support from the minority and tribal voters for Mr. Debnath’s victory in Dhanpur.
A sub-plot in the Dhanpur bypoll story was the role of the Tipra Motha Party (TMP) headed by Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barman, whose ancestors ruled the kingdom of Tripura that extended to parts of present-day Bangladesh. In the Assembly polls, the TMP emerged as the second-largest party with 13 of Tripura’s 60 Assembly seats followed by the CPI(M) with 11 and the Congress with three. The BJP won 32 and its ally, the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura, one. The BJP now has 33; the CPI(M) 10.
Ahead of the bypolls, the TMP and Congress declared they would not field candidates in the two seats to prevent the division of votes. Two days before the bypolls, the TMP announced it would neither support the CPI(M) nor the BJP candidate, leaving the choice to the voters and party workers. Although not a part of INDIA, the support of the TMP, which holds sway over the tribal areas, would be crucial for the Opposition alliance to win the two Lok Sabha seats in Tripura in 2024.
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