Higher turnout and victory margin not linked
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At Palacode and Karur, the distinction between the winner and the loser in 2016 was very low
Contrary to the notion amongst sections of politicians and specialists, there isn’t any co-relation between the next voter turnout and the margin of victory for the winner, going by the 2016 Assembly election outcomes.
At Palacode in Dharmapuri district, the place Tamil Nadu’s highest turnout of 88.57% was registered, Higher Education Minister K.P. Anbalagan gained by 5,983 votes over his nearest DMK rival. The margin was round 3.2%. This time too, the constituency recorded the best polling of 87.37%. Mr. Anbalagan is within the fray once more.
Karur, one other high-profile constituency from the place Transport Minister M.R. Vijayabhaskar was elected 5 years in the past, registered a turnout of 80.5%. But he gained by solely 441 votes. This time, the constituency reported a turnout of 83.57%. Mr. Vijayabhaskar is pitted towards one other distinguished candidate V. Senthil Balaji of the DMK.
At the identical time, there are cases of high-turnout constituencies popping out with enormous margins. In Oddanchatram, the place turnout over and above 80% is the norm since 2011, the winner, R. Sakkarapani of the DMK, secured a margin of 65,727 votes 5 years in the past.
Tamil Culture-Language Minister K. Pandiarajan, who was elected from Avadi, an city constituency, with a distinction of 1,395 votes in 2016, nonetheless, feels the margin of victory is linked to the turnout. “I could sense it with my experience of having contested in four elections,” he says.
Former School Education Minister and DMK nominee in Tiruchuli Thangam Thennarasu concurs with him. Mr. Thennarasu, who first entered the Assembly in 1998, factors out that there’s a chance of the victory margin being very excessive in high-turnout constituencies. However, the state of affairs might change, relying upon the power of a 3rd contestant or get together in affecting the fortunes of the primary two candidates.
Academic G. Palanithurai says the distinction is sure to be excessive when one candidate scores over the others in mobilising the electors.
There is a discordant view even amongst political leaders.
A senior functionary of the AIADMK says there have been cases of candidates scoring enormous margins in constituencies the place the turnout was decrease than the State common. The candidates’ base of their constituencies is a vital think about shaping the margins whatever the turnout, he says.
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