T.N. not experiencing more cyclones now than before
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From 1965-2019, variety of methods that affected Bay of Bengal area throughout Oct.-Dec. was 3.6 a 12 months
With the Tamil Nadu coast bearing the impression of Cyclone Burevi inside days of getting been battered by Cyclone Nivar, the query that many ask is whether or not the State has been experiencing more tropical cyclones lately than previously.
A agency ‘no’ is the response from veteran meteorologists Y.E.A. Raj and S. Balachandran. They say occurrences in a 12 months or two ought to not be construed as a development. Instead, the info for at the very least 10 years ought to be taken under consideration.
Average determine
Pointing out that the State on a median will get one cyclonic system or disturbance yearly, Dr. Raj, former Deputy Director-General of Meteorology (DDGM), explains that going by the info for the interval from 1965 to 2019, the typical variety of methods that affected the Bay of Bengal area throughout October-December was 3.6 a 12 months.
In different phrases, there have been 198 climate methods in complete. Apart from Tamil Nadu, the area consists of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal, and the neighbouring international locations of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Different levels
The time period, ‘cyclonic system or disturbance’, covers totally different levels — despair, deep despair, cyclonic storm, extreme cyclonic storm, very extreme cyclonic storm, extraordinarily extreme cyclonic storm and tremendous cyclonic storm, that are all graded on the idea of related most wind velocity.
There has not been any perceptible rise within the variety of cyclonic methods that crossed the Tamil Nadu coast. This is clear from the truth that 39 methods had hit the State within the 54-year interval (1965-2019), Dr. Raj says, including that using satellites for climate forecasting began within the mid-Nineteen Sixties.
Factors at play
There had been years when the Tamil Nadu coast did not have even a single extreme cyclonic storm, as had occurred throughout 2001-10. But the State did file heavy rainfall within the interval. For instance, in 2005, when Tamil Nadu had bountiful rainfall, it was Andhra Pradesh that bore the brunt of the methods, he says.
Dr. Balachandran, the current DDGM, says the current information reveal that it’s the Arabian Sea area that experiences the rise within the variety of methods. This will be attributed to elements similar to warming of the ocean and discount in vertical wind shear, which is characterised by adjustments within the velocity or the course, or in each.
The coastal belt between Tiruvallur and Pudukottai is hit by more variety of cyclones than the area south of Pudukottai. Among the explanations is Sri Lanka performing as a protect for the southern belt. In this context, the official recollects that Cyclone Ockhi, which devastated Kanniyakumari three years in the past, was one of many 4 methods which have crossed the place within the final 100 years.
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