Tough times ahead for State’s power infrastructure

Climate projections for 2021–2050 for Karnataka present that the summer season most temperature is projected to extend by 1.4 to 2.4 levels Celsius within the districts with thermal power crops, and by 1.7 to 2.4°C in districts with photo voltaic power crops. The imply annual rainfall is projected to extend by 11% to 22% within the districts with power infrastructure, and heavy rainfall occasions by two to 6 occasions in districts with thermal power crops and by one to 2 occasions in a few of the districts with photo voltaic power crops.

For a State that has typically battled with allegations of unreliable power provide infrastructure, what’s going to this imply? And what are the challenges that the brand new push for renewable power corresponding to photo voltaic power faces with regard to local weather change?

The ‘Climate Risk Profile for Power Sector in Karnataka’ by the Centre for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP), introduced out this March making an allowance for most temperature, heavy rainfall occasions, and vulnerability standards, signifies that thermal power crops in Vijayapura are at “medium-high” threat, these in Raichur and Ballari are at “medium” threat, and the Udupi plant is at “very low” threat. Solar power crops in all of the eight districts fall within the “low-medium” threat class.

The implications of a rise in temperature and absence of water embrace a 0.3% to 0.5% discount in photo voltaic effectivity and materials injury, a 0.4% to 0.7% discount in thermal effectivity, and decreased transmission effectivity due to further resistance and elevated conductor sag. On the opposite hand, the implications of a rise in heavy rainfall occasions are 30% discount in photo voltaic effectivity due to darkish rain clouds and materials injury, and decreased boiler effectivity due to elevated moisture content material of coal and delay in coal provide as Karnataka’s thermal crops depend on inter-State provide, the report provides.

Extreme occasions

Speaking to The Puucho, Indu K. Murthy, Principal Research Scientist, Domain Lead-Adaptation and Risk Analysis crew at CSTEP, and one of many key authors of the report, mentioned the concept of the examine stemmed from the truth that not a lot consideration is given to the power sector in India whereas remainder of the world is wanting on the threat issue. “We have been hearing about more and more extreme events. According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences report, there will be more such extreme events till the end of the century. All infrastructure has been designed with historical climate in mind. It makes sense to look at what will happen in the future to design and maintain infrastructure. An initial climate change risk assessment is important for practitioners to make decisions and climate-proof infrastructure,” she mentioned.

The researchers began off with local weather hazard mapping, historic local weather information and in contrast information with the long run interval. “What we see for districts in Karnataka with thermal and solar power plants is that there will be an increase in temperature over a 30-year period, and though the increase looks small it will not be a smooth curve,” Ms. Murthy defined.

Furthermore, heavy rainfall occasions may even enhance sooner or later. In sure districts with photo voltaic crops, corresponding to Bagalkot and Chitradurga, no such occasions have been recorded traditionally. So the projected excessive rainfall occasions may grow to be the brand new regular, she identified.

So what’s the approach ahead? The researchers recommend a multi-pronged method involving technological interventions corresponding to selling higher designs and improved requirements, planning-related measures corresponding to mapping local weather hazards and dangers to assist formulate methods for publicity discount, investing in resilient infrastructure and rising share of renewables, prioritising tasks and designs which can be adaptable to future local weather situations, and budgetary allocation for periodic evaluation, restore, and improve to scale back local weather vulnerability.

They have additionally really useful growth of a resilience index with a minimal acceptable normal for periodic evaluation of present infrastructure, drafting of a retrofit code, and imposing authorized legal responsibility to stick to requirements, laws for adoption of inexperienced infrastructure or a hybrid method, and growth of a compendium of resilient applied sciences via the creation of a technological consortium for analysis, growth, and innovation.